The Bond Market Is Sending Us A New Warning

2025-04-10 21:17:47 ET

Summary

• The bond market is signaling a worsening economic outlook, with a bear steepener indicating higher potential recession.
• I'm cautious, holding cash and commodities, avoiding equities and long bonds due to market volatility and uncertain economic conditions.
• The Simplify Managed Futures ETF and 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF are my preferred investments, offering stability and potential returns amidst market chaos.
• Patience is key; waiting for clearer economic signals before making significant investment moves, as the Fed may tolerate more market pain than anticipated.

Introduction

My regular readers will know that I follow the bond market regularly , and have written explicitly on its patterns in the past, especially as it pertains to the ongoing market narratives and the next Fed decision....

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