Seasonal Patterns Didn't Work In 2024, How Does That Affect 2025?

2025-01-06 02:18:19 ET

Summary

• Seasonal patterns in 2024 didn't conform as expected, but I will continue to use them as signposts for trading and hedging in 2025.
• Stock picking and disciplined investing trump seasonal strategies; use charts to find good bases for trading or adding to investments.
• The Fed's rate cuts and US fiscal policies affected market behavior, leading to unexpected rallies and impacting traditional seasonal patterns.
• I maintain a balanced approach with cash reserves, long positions, and specific shorts, prepared for both bullish and bearish market scenarios.

Seasonal Patterns Didn’t Work in 2024, How Does That Affect 2025?

The quick and easy answer is that it doesn’t

The most notable non-conformance of seasonal patterns was in Q4 of 2024. I have never hewed to the line “when in May sell your stocks and go away,” that is the height of folly in my mind. I will be charitable and not take this adage literally. Perhaps it was meant more as a caution, to be ready for days with lower trading volumes. I have found that the end of September to the beginning of December is time for adjusting and preparing for the season....

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