Firefly Aerospace: From Moon Landing Glory To A Valuation Crash Landing

2025-10-04 12:32:35 ET

Introduction

When I first wrote about Firefly Aerospace ( FLY ) during its IPO, I described it as one of the most exciting IPOs of 2025. This company dared to aim for the stars, quite literally, so it’s not surprising the market was excited no less. The stock opened at $45 and immediately surged to over $70 per share, giving Firefly a $10 billion valuation and instantly placing it among the hottest new tickers of the year. Everyone wanted exposure to “the next SpaceX,” or a RocketLab ( RKLB ) that so many investors, including myself, have missed, and Firefly looked like the closest thing available in the public markets. As I warned while writing the piece, the volatility was expected. The stock closed at $60 per share on the day, which immediately sent those bought higher into the red, but it was still a significant rise compared to $45 price on the IPO. I also said that it’s a double-edged sword, and warned about the execution risk that can send the stock flying down:

Here we have the same risk that we have for all of the other space companies: execution. We’ve seen it before, and one failed launch, one delay, one issue, and the stock can crash. This is what actually went wrong for Intuitive Machines when their lander landed on its side. The second time it happened, or in March, the stock crashed in a matter of a couple of days from $20 per share to $6. This can happen to any of these companies, so beware. On the other hand, when they have a successful launch, the stock will soar as well. So, I guess, this industry is not for the faint-hearted.

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