We Could Be In For A Flat Market In 2026

2026-01-25 23:51:52 ET

Flat 2026? October Was The Nasdaq's last high. What to do?

Where are we headed? The Nasdaq is flat, and the S&P 500 is nearly so.

In this article, I want to explore how important the biggest names on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are to the state of US-based equities. Without the 10 “Trillionaires” on an upswing, who will propel the market to new highs? I am not saying a down or flat market is a certainty, as always, I am talking about risks. No one is predicting a bear market for 2026, and I am not making that case here. I am just putting the notion that the indexes could be flat for 2026 on the table and evaluating the risks. You are going to hear me say risk several times in this article, as someone who actively manages my stock portfolio, risk is extremely important. Most of my loyal readers at this point have heard me mention this before. Since it’s a new year, I hope you don’t mind if I talk about how I approach risk again. I have talked about how I use cash as part of an active hedging strategy and also how I use options and inverse ETFs for hedging. Using options is a very powerful tool, and before you toy with them, go to your brokerage firm’s education section and learn as much as you can about them before you use them. Now with that PSA out of the way, let’s summarize: I am not predicting a bear market, I am not even stating that a flat market is a certainty. I am writing about this topic because I am thinking through what might be ahead of us. That, despite the optimism in the financial media, I want to build my own picture of where the market is going. Again, if you have been reading my content for a while, I am always saying “this, or that will happen.” Then, as the week or month transpires, I compare what is happening to what I thought would happen and adjust accordingly....

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