Rates: Curve Pivots And Steady Spreads

2026-07-09 11:35:00 ET

By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas

Look for elevated real rates, steeper curves and Treasury/Bund/Swap stability

Over the past few weeks, we've been opining on long-dated real rates as a factor of significance for bond markets. Primarily, here . There is a link, even if seemingly tenuous, with the ongoing technical and productivity revolution being discounted in the risk asset space. It's not easy to glean this from the ups and downs in bond yields through business cycles, but it's certainly there. They should be higher than normal, and certainly well above the ultra-low real rates seen post the global financial crisis / pandemic periods....

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