2025 Economic And Market Outlook

2025-01-02 08:05:00 ET

Summary

• We are bullish on stocks with a 7,000 target on the S&P 500 Index, assuming an 18% effective corporate tax rate is enacted. If there is no corporate tax cut, our S&P target falls to 6,600, and if there is a full cut to 15%, our target rises to 7,500.
• We continue to be bullish on investment banks, financials, REITs, small caps, and preferred stocks, but tech stocks will outperform these sectors unless rates start to drop in 2025.
• We remain bullish on bonds despite the recent sharp selloff of 10-year Treasuries in response to a hawkish Fed, and expect the 10-year to move into the 3.5-4% range by the first quarter of 2025.
• Tight Fed policy has already triggered a housing recession, with residential investment declining by an average of 3.5% over the last two quarters.

1. Review of 2024 Outlook: Published Dec. 2023

December 2024 Market & Economic Outlook Report: Click here to see the report.

2024 Market Outlook Summary ...

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