Bond Market Update, And April PCE Data This Coming Week

2025-05-26 08:00:00 ET

Summary

• The quarterly GDP data - including Q4 ’24 - has been influenced by the accelerated purchases of imports to avoid the Trump Administration tariffs, which makes that data point more “complicated” and thus perhaps less meaningful than in quarters past.
• The April ’25 PCE data point will be the first important inflation metric for the capital markets post “Liberation Day”. Core PCE is expected at +0.1%.
• As long as the 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% (4.99% was the October ’23 high yield tick for the 10-year Treasury) and really stays below the January ’25 high yield tick of 4.81%, you can reasonably make the case that inflation is still contained and the Treasury market is not “broken”.

The table above is published by Briefing.com every weekend and provides good detail on the coming week’s economic data releases....

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