Bullish And Bearish Records Are Plentiful. How To Anticipate What Happens Next

2025-05-05 08:30:00 ET

Summary

• Last week’s news headlines were filled with records of bullish records like consecutive up days, the biggest one-month market recovery, and more.
• This week, we’ll build on last week’s base case and look at how to navigate your portfolio from the perspective of a tactical long-term investor and/or agile discretionary trader.
• As we’ve covered many times in prior issues of Market Outlook, the best advice for anticipating the health and direction of the economy is found by watching the trends and levels of interest rates.

By Geoff Bysshe

Last week’s news headlines were filled with records of bullish records like consecutive up days, the biggest one-month market recovery, and more. At the same time, bearish records related to Trump’s first 100 days, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and more counterbalanced the news flow.

Last week’s economic data was a roller coaster that included consumer sentiment, inflation , employment, GDP, and more.

Some metrics continued to trend lower and even hit historic lows. One aggregate measure of economic report performance, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (shown below), continued its slide lower, which suggests that, on balance, the reports were weaker than expected. ...

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