Business Conditions Monthly January 2025

2025-03-21 23:20:00 ET

Summary

• In January 2025, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators showed moderate economic momentum, with leading indicators moderating, coincident measures remaining solid, and lagging indicators rebounding sharply.
• Of the twelve Leading Indicator components, six rose, one was unchanged, and five declined in January.
• Four constituents of the Roughly Coincident Indicator rose and two declined.

By Peter C. Earle

In January 2025, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly indicators showed moderate economic momentum, with leading indicators moderating, coincident measures remaining solid, and lagging indicators rebounding sharply. The Leading Indicator declined to 54, down from 71 in December, reflecting softening forward-looking economic activity. However, the Roughly Coincident Indicator held firm at 67, indicating steady real-time economic conditions, while the Lagging Indicator surged to 83, suggesting improving conditions in longer-cycle economic trends. The divergence between leading and lagging measures indicates short-term uncertainty, though the broader economy shows resilience for now....

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