Chart Of The Day: Amid Tariff Fights, Don't Forget About The Fed

2025-06-02 11:15:00 ET

Summary

• The core PCE index rose just 2.5% year-over-year in April, down from 2.7% in March. The headline index that includes food and energy slipped to just 2.1%.
• It’s possible President Trump’s tariffs will put upward pressure on inflation. But so far, the "declining inflation" trend we’ve seen since mid-2022 hasn’t been derailed.
• Markets are increasingly pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September. Plus, they’re looking for another couple of cuts in late 2025 and early 2026.

By Mike Larson

With all the tariff fights going on in Washington, in foreign capitals, and in courtrooms, it’s easy to forget about the Fed. But as a trader, you shouldn’t!...

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