Data Distortions And The Spirit Of 2020

2025-05-17 02:15:00 ET

Summary

• The April PPI number does share a narrative of sorts with the pandemic data in that the change, which was much larger than what economists had forecast, could be placed on one single cause.
• The cause was the derecho storm of tariff policies announced (and revised, and revised again and again) between the March and April PPI surveys.
• Manufacturers have choices to make in determining how much of the cost increases they face from higher input costs (raw materials, labor and the like) they pass on to consumers.

Every calendar quarter, we publish a survey of markets and the economy for our clients called the “State of Play.” One of the standard features of this quarterly report is a time series snapshot of four headline macroeconomic trends over the past five years....

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