Fed Expected To Hold Interest Rates Steady At Wednesday's Policy Meeting

2025-03-17 20:50:00 ET

Summary

• TMC Research’s Fed funds model anticipates no change in the central bank’s target interest rate at this week’s policy announcement on Wednesday, Mar. 19.
• The Federal Reserve’s target rate remains in line with a neutral stance, based on TMC Research’s Fed funds model.
• Although the Fed is unlikely to change interest rates this week, it’s on high alert for higher inflation, softer economic activity unfolding and - at the same time – stagflation risk.

By James Picerno

Consumer inflation slowed in February, which potentially gives the Federal Reserve more leeway to leave its target rate unchanged when it announces its revised policy stance this week (Wed., Mar. 19). But last month’s data is ancient history at a time of rapidly escalating tariffs, and so uncertainty has increased about how the Fed will manage policy in the weeks and months ahead....

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