Import Tariff Economic Headwinds

2025-05-19 20:45:00 ET

Summary

• Contrary to what the buoyant stock market might be indicating, this combination of trade policy uncertainty and unusually high import tariff levels does not bode well for this year’s US economic outlook.
• The only trade agreement that has been announced was a trade agreement framework with the United Kingdom. The details of that agreement are still to be worked out.
• We also find ourselves in a state of limbo with China, the world’s second-largest economy.

If there is one thing about which we can be sure, it is that the high degree of import tariff policy uncertainty that has characterized the Trump 2.0 administration to date will not dissipate anytime soon....

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