Is The U.S. Headed For A Drop In GDP Growth?

2025-03-06 02:50:00 ET

Summary

• A key economic indicator now anticipates a 1.5% drop in US GDP growth for the first quarter, which seems to largely be related to tariff concerns.
• Thus far, the Fed seems more concerned about inflationary risks than growth risks, but that could change if we see more signs of economic deterioration.
• I expect a rate cut from the ECB this week, and likely three more cuts this year. I expect these cuts to help drive strong European equity returns this year.

The list of things to watch in the US continues to grow: the implementation of new tariffs, slowing US growth, inflation concerns, a potential government shutdown , and a wild ride for the 10-year US Treasury yield among them. On top of that, this week brings a European Central Bank meeting and the start of China’s National People’s Congress. Here are the top things for global investors to keep an eye on in March.

Tariff implementation

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