Job Worries Push The U.S. Fed Into Action
2025-09-11 12:10:00 ET
Job weakness becoming the priority
Second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, but given the trade volatility brought about by President Trump’s tariff policy, we should take an average of the first two quarters, which means annualised growth of around 1.5% for the first half of the year. The second half is likely to expand at a similar rate. There appears to be a modest consumer revival in the third quarter, offset by weaker construction and investment and a drag from trade. In the fourth quarter, we suspect growing fears about the jobs market and the squeeze on disposable incomes from tariff-induced price hikes mean consumer spending growth slows again....
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Job Worries Push The U.S. Fed Into Action
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