Macro Monthly: Status Quo

2025-10-08 02:50:00 ET

There has been a lot of change in economic – and other – policies this year, but not much change in the economic outlook. We’ve had a large tax hike in the form of import taxes (tariffs), a comprehensive tax and spending bill, a DOGE attack on various government departments, more government employee layoffs than have ever happened in one year, essentially a halt in immigration, and now, a complete government shutdown, but through it all, the economic outlook has remained remarkably stable. It seems impossible with all the day-to-day drama of the Trump administration, but that is exactly what markets are telling us....

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