Markets, Inflation And The 'Fed Put'

2025-03-25 01:50:00 ET

Summary

• The University of Michigan Consumer confidence survey for March plunged to 57.9 versus the estimate of 63 and 65.7 in the month prior.
• The conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting was to keep rates at 4.25-4.5%. But there were big cuts in the GDP forecast to just 1.7%, down from 2.1% in the previous meeting.
• Inflation also got upgraded to a 2.8% annual pace, up 0.3 percentage points from their previous estimate.

The University of Michigan Consumer confidence survey for March plunged to 57.9 versus the estimate of 63 and 65.7 in the month prior. And yet, inflation expectations in the same survey hit a 32-year high of 4.9%. Stagflation is the word that comes to mind when defining this data. And, stagflation is a very difficult condition in which to become bullish about stocks....

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