Rates Spark: Front Ends Are Steady, But Lots Going On

2025-10-22 01:15:00 ET

By Michiel Tukker and Padhraic Garvey, CFA

Big surprises needed to move the front end of the euro curve

Whilst we do see some movement at the front end of the euro curve, we expect the current pricing to remain relatively sticky until at least mid-2026. Markets imply a probability of around 70% for another cut by summer next year, which seems fair given the balance of risks. The biggest downside risk would be headwinds to the growth outlook, but so far the economy has shown resilience even despite the trade turmoil earlier this year. Bar a big surprise, the PMIs on Friday should confirm a continuation of a slow but gradual recovery in growth....

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