Rates Spark: Geopolitics Add To Bullish Impulses

2025-06-13 05:20:00 ET

By Padhraic Garvey, CFA & Benjamin Schroeder

The impulse for Treasuries remains tactically bullish

Another strong auction on Thursday as the 30yr went very well. It saw a negative tail of -1.5bp (simplistically 1.5bp through secondary), and the overall auction metrics were good. This is a further bullish impulse for the bond market, as the mini-bull run continues. Certainly, it remains a tactically bullish Treasury market here. The PPI report helped, too. The 0.1% month-on-month outcome shows a clear containment in prices, at least for now. There is no denying that these headlines are bond bullish. We have a bearish view on bonds based on the tax-cutting / fiscal story, but when we see a tactically bullish impulse, we can’t ignore it....

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