Rates Spark: Lots To Get Excited About... Next Week

2025-01-23 01:15:00 ET

Summary

• It’s been a hugely impactful start on the inauguration of President Trump, but lacking on material impulse for markets, partly as it's not clear what to take seriously or what not.
• Next week is potentially quite impactful, and can impact sentiment in anticipation.
• We identify a tactical bond bullish tint, and separately, why money markets should keep a close eye on reserves management and debt ceiling complications.

By Padhraic Garvey, CFA

Tough to prompt direction in this market - but watch core PCE in the distance

It's been one of those weeks so far. A hugely impactful start on the inauguration of President Trump, but lacking on material impulse for markets, partly as it's not clear what to take seriously or what not. Data releases have been somewhat meh too. And it does not get much better on Thursday, as US jobless claims feature (expect an ongoing match in the 220k area, indicative of an ongoing firm-ish labour market)....

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