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Rates Spark: There's Resistance To The Push Lower In Rates

Source: SeekingAlpha

2025-10-21 02:30:00 ET

By Padhraic Garvey, CFA and Benjamin Schroeder

The US 10yr wants to dip lower, but knows inflation readings are a risk ahead

In the US, a mean reversion of around 4% for 10-year yields is the ongoing central tendency. And the 2yr yield is not deviating too much from the 3.5% area, with the market continuing to discount a floor for the funds rate at or about 3%. There has also been a slow ratcheting tighter in the 10yr swap spread in recent weeks, correlating with some better news on the fiscal story (2025 fiscal deficit confirmed as below that of 2024)....

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Rates Spark: There's Resistance To The Push Lower In Rates
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