Rates Spark: To The Brink And Back

2026-03-24 06:33:00 ET

By Benjamin Schroeder, Senior Rates Strategist

Renewed hope, but not the all-clear required to turn the market

At one point on Monday, the market was almost fully discounting four rate hikes from the European Central Bank this year, with a hike already in April fully priced. At the longer end of the curve, the 10y EUR swap rate moved past the 3% threshold with a muted reaction to the real rate, suggesting that the main consideration here was still the inflation feed-through....

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