Slower Retail Sales, Great News On Inflation, And Jobless Claims Remain Trendless

2025-05-15 12:18:00 ET

Summary

• Retail sales edged higher by 0.1 percent for April, with the retail control group declining by 0.2 percent.
• Businesses are trying to hold the line on prices while they can, but if tariff rates do rise and pre-tariff inventories inexorably dwindle, firms will find it harder not to pass along higher tariffs.
• Today’s data doesn’t show much impact from tariffs, but it’s probably still too soon to see them.

By David W. Berson, Ph.D.

Retail sales edged higher by 0.1 percent for April (note that it rounded up to 0.1 percent, with the actual increase at 0.05 percent), with the retail control group (core retail sales) declining by 0.2 percent. A weaker reading, especially for the control group, but perhaps not unexpected after the prior month’s upwardly revised surge. Are consumers becoming more cautious in the face of tariffs? Certainly, too soon to tell, but May’s data will give us more clarity on this point. Still, not a strong report, no matter how you look at it....

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