Strong Employment Report To Keep Fed On Hold For Now

2025-04-08 03:00:00 ET

Summary

• The employment report came in strong, with the establishment survey registering 228,000 jobs added in March.
• We continue to be bullish on treasury bonds and reiterate our 3.5-4.0% year-end target on the 10-year treasury, with the current rate approximately 3.9%.
• Even though the Fed Chair acknowledged that inflation from tariffs is one time and should be excluded, but many FOMC participants don’t seem to understand this.

Originally published on April 6, 2025

The employment report came in strong with the establishment survey registering 228,000 jobs added in March and the household survey showing 200,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1% driven by a higher labor force participation. These strong numbers are likely to keep the Fed on hold for now....

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