The Downward Trend Continues

2025-05-19 06:34:00 ET

Summary

• The US CPI numbers reported on Tuesday 13th May extended the downward trend that began in mid-2022.
• The last time the CPI’s growth rate was as low as it was in April of this year was February 2021, at which time the Fed was inflating the money supply aggressively via its QE program and maintaining a target interest rate of around zero.
• Due to the uncertainty regarding the effects of tariffs, it’s possible that the US economy will have to become very obviously weak before the Fed makes its next decisive move to loosen monetary conditions.

Editor's Note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on May 19, 2025

[This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published at www.speculative-investor.com last week] ...

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