The U.S. Is Hurtling Toward A Recession

2025-03-05 06:31:00 ET

Summary

• One key indicator signaling an imminent recession is the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model, which updates in real time as new economic data arrives.
• What’s striking is that today’s plunge to a -2.8% GDP contraction marks the worst forecast since the COVID lockdowns in 2020.
• I expect the U.S. economy to be dragged into a downturn by the bursting of what I call the “Everything Bubble”.
• Another yield curve-based recession indicator is the New York Fed Recession Probability Model, which estimates the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months.

Back in December, while much of the country was riding a wave of optimism over Donald Trump’s presidential victory, I warned that we were hurtling toward a recession - and saying that it may have already begun. I also noted that the increasing likelihood of a recession would drive up gold prices - and the recent surge is clear confirmation of that.

My prediction wasn’t driven by political bias but by hard data and reliable recession indicators, which had signaled economic trouble long before Trump’s win. And now, as expected, a growing body of evidence confirms that the odds of an imminent U.S. recession are surging....

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