Trade Swings Mask Cooling U.S. Demand Growth
Source: SeekingAlpha
2025-06-12 11:07:00 ET
Violent trade swings make forecasting challenging
The US economy contracted in the first quarter as tariff front-running led to a surge in imports and resulted in net trade knocking 4.9 percentage points off headline growth. The subsequent collapse in imports in the wake of the 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements means we could quite easily see GDP growth surge 4% in the second quarter. Trade volatility looks set to mask underlying domestic demand trends for much of this year....
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Trade Swings Mask Cooling U.S. Demand Growth
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