Treasuries, Sentiment, And Earnings: What Investors Need To Watch

2025-04-16 02:40:00 ET

Summary

• The greatest US vulnerability in the midst of the tariff war is likely its relatively high level of debt and foreign ownership of it.
• There are headwinds facing the European economy from tariff wars, but fiscal stimulus is a powerful countervailing force.
• As US earnings season begins, forward guidance is likely to matter more to markets than actual first quarter earnings.

Last week brought us another chapter in the tariff wars, as the US announced a 90-day pause on the implementation of the "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs against all countries except China. On Friday night, the US announced exemptions (for electronics and phones) to its tariff policy on China, although officials seemed to walk that back somewhat over the weekend. Not surprisingly, stocks and Treasuries experienced wild swings over the course of the week in response to tariff war developments, while gold continued to climb higher. ¹ ...

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