Trump, Powell And Rates: Tariffs On, Tariffs Off

2025-06-04 13:21:00 ET

Summary

• With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.
• Despite political pressure, the Federal Reserve remains committed to data-dependent rate decisions, with September shaping up as the earliest likely inflection point for policy changes.
• Treasury markets have stabilized following Moody’s downgrade and passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, suggesting investor demand remains solid and fears of a mass U.S. bond sell-off are likely overstated.

By Kevin Flanagan & Samuel Rines

Obviously, headlines are swirling at a rather quick pace, so it is important to keep the lines of communication open. This blog is an updated installment to our series we have been publishing since the beginning of the year. Here are our latest thoughts following last week’s whirlwind news:

Trump ...

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