Weak Economic Data Supports 3 Fed Rate Cuts This Year

2025-08-04 18:10:00 ET

The US economy is weakening and will enter a recession if the Fed does not cut interest rates significantly this year. GDP data released last week show that growth has only averaged 1.5% this year and the interest rate-sensitive construction and residential sectors have contracted over the last year in response to tight Fed policy. In addition, employment growth has stalled with less than 35k jobs created on average over the last 3 months according to the recent employer survey and over 850k jobs lost according to the household survey. Continuing claims also remain elevated at almost 2MM....

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