Weekly Market Pulse: Here We Go Again

2025-02-10 08:20:00 ET

Summary

• On earnings specifically, Q4 ’24 is shaping up as the best quarter in the last three years, with earnings so far up about 15% year-over-year.
• One potential problem is that earnings guidance is starting to fade, with more companies lowering guidance than raising it.
• Job openings fell in December, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing as the economy continues to fall back to pre-COVID norms.
• The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 8 basis points last week, while the yield of 3-month T-Bills and 2-year Notes rose.

The stock market was having a good week until just around 10 am last Friday. Stocks rallied during the week as earnings reports were pretty good – with exceptions as always – and the economic news wasn’t bad either. On earnings specifically, Q4 ’24 is shaping up as the best quarter in the last three years, with earnings so far up about 15% year-over-year. Of the 289 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings, 221 reported better than expected, 52 reported less than expected, while 16 reported as expected. 174 companies have also reported sales above expectations. Those percentages are about average if you look at the last 10 years, but the year-over-year earnings gains are pretty impressive and, at least for now, expected to continue. One potential problem is that earnings guidance is starting to fade, with more companies lowering guidance than raising it. So far, 34 companies have issued negative guidance, while just 21 have boosted their outlook....

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