Whither Treasury Yields?

2025-04-22 15:36:00 ET

Summary

• The bond market is caught between two contradictory forces: some investors want to get out of U.S. dollar-denominated securities, while the U.S. economy is careening towards recession.
• I have not seen enough deterioration in activity recession to indicate that the U.S. is in recession now, but the collapse of supply chains is already baked into the cake.
• The 100+% tariffs on China are going to crush small and medium firms that rely on Chinese inputs for their own production.

Since I am allegedly writing about the intersection of the bond market and economics, I need to periodically check in with what is happening in the bond market itself. (Since I am not plugging financial forecasts, I do not have the pressing need to point out how brilliant my calls are — or why the markets are wrong — which is a constant source for articles for most other commentators.) ...

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