Weekly Commentary: The Warsh Fed

2026-05-23 04:40:46 ET

Crude (WTI July contract) prices traded above $104 in early Wednesday trading. Ten-year Treasury yields were at 4.68%, up 12 bps w-t-d to the high since January 2025, while long-bond yields reached 5.20% (up 13bps w-t-d) - the high back to July 2007. Japanese 30-year yields traded intraday Monday to a record 4.19%. UK yields traded Monday up to 5.86%, the highest yield since May 1998. At Tuesday's lows, the MAG7 Index was down 2.5% w-t-d.

Yet another well-timed intervention: "Trump Says US in 'Final Stages" With Iran." Crude closed Wednesday trading at $98.26, down almost 6% from earlier trading highs. The MAG7 Index traded up 1.4% from intraday lows, ending the session 1.3% higher. The Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7% Wednesday, with the Semiconductors surging 4.5%. The S&P 500 advanced 1.1%, as the small cap Russell 2000 jumped 2.6%. The Goldman Sachs Most Short Index advanced 3.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the week at 4.56%, 12 bps below Wednesday's trading high.

May 22 - CBS News (James LaPorta, Jennifer Jacobs and Margaret Brennan): "The Trump administration was preparing Friday for a fresh round of military strikes against Iran, according to sources with direct knowledge of the planning, even as diplomacy continued. No final decision on strikes had been reached as of Friday afternoon. 'Circumstances pertaining to Government' are keeping President Trump from attending his son Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding this weekend… The president had planned to spend Memorial Day weekend at his golf property in New Jersey but will now return to the White House. Some members of the U.S. military and intelligence community canceled their plans for the Memorial Day weekend in anticipation of possible strikes, several sources said."...

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