Weekly Commentary: Unbelievable

2026-04-11 22:45:00 ET

It was a week befitting the CBB theme for 2026: Expect the Unbelievable. And what a difference a few hours can make: The President's "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again," as the vice president campaigned in Budapest for Viktor Orban - to "I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks… We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated… It is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution."

Trading Tuesday afternoon to $117.63, WTI (July futures) almost touched $95 early in Wednesday's session ("biggest drop since 2020"). The S&P 500 gapped 2.7% higher at Wednesday's open, with the Nasdaq 100 and small cap Russell 2000 gapping 3.5%. The MAG7 Index surged 4.2%. Financial stocks were even stronger. The KBW Bank Index gapped up 4.4% and the Broker/Dealers 4.5%.

After trading at 28 during Tuesday's session, the VIX (equities volatility) Index sank to 21 at Wednesday's open. European stock market moves were even more dramatic. Germany's DAX Index gapped 5.0% higher, with France's CAC40 jumping 4.3%. Italy's MIB and Spain's IBEX indices gapped 4.2% and 4.1%. UK FTSE 100 Index opened 3.0% higher. European banks (STOXX 600) gapped up 6.0%, ending the week 6.5% higher. European (subordinated) Bank CDS sank from 125 to 108 bps....

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