Global Macro Outlook: Second Quarter 2026

2026-04-07 04:30:00 ET

The Macro Picture

Economics moved to the back burner in the first quarter, with geopolitical risks dominating the narrative. From Greenland to Venezuela and eventually to Iran, US foreign policy became the dominant variable for financial markets. Our paradigm in assessing the impact of geopolitical events on the economy is to look for a transmission mechanism: the economically meaningful price that moves in response. With the war in Iran, the answer is obvious: the price of oil is the most significant factor to consider in thinking about the economic outlook....

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