Economic Data Are Sending Mixed And Confusing Signals
Source: SeekingAlpha
2025-05-06 10:30:00 ET
Summary
- While the impact of the tariffs is likely not yet being felt in the hard economic data, US sentiment is weak.
- Nonfarm payrolls surpassed expectations in April but may deteriorate as tariffs likely weigh on hiring activity.
- We expect a 25-basis point cut, which should support stronger activity in the second half.
April 2025 served as a stark reminder to investors that timing the market is a fool’s errand. The S&P 500 Index had dropped 19% from its peak ahead of and in the week following “Liberation Day,” but it’s essentially back to where it was on April 2. 1
Investors have celebrated the perceived willingness of the Trump administration to adjust course on tariffs and attacks on the Federal Reserve (Fed) if certain pain thresholds are crossed....
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Economic Data Are Sending Mixed And Confusing Signals
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