Global Economic Outlook: April 2025
2025-04-17 05:35:00 ET
Summary
- Trade tensions and related uncertainties point to continued turbulence in ?nancial markets.
- We have cut our global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in April’s update, re?ecting the issues above.
- In our base case, we continue to expect limited easing by the US Federal Reserve this year.
Trade tensions and related uncertainties point to continued turbulence in ?nancial markets. Corrections in equity prices were pronounced and widespread following the initial announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. While the subsequent pause on April 9 led to strong initial rebounds, market conditions remain choppy, and risk aversion is elevated. Given growing concern over a possible waning of foreign appetite for US Treasurys, the jump in yields in early April was a worrying sign. While the acute near-term risk of a negative feedback loop between market turmoil and recession has diminished, the chronic problems of US policy volatility, related uncertainties and adverse economic spillovers are likely to linger....
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Global Economic Outlook: April 2025
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