Inflation, Tariffs, And Other Investor Questions Answered

2025-01-23 12:30:00 ET

Summary

• My base case remains that US disinflation will continue, but I’m closely watching signs of a potential resurgence in inflation.
• It’s possible that we may see tariff threats used as a tool to achieve other policy goals without actual implementation of significant tariffs.
• I believe China’s fourth quarter growth is sustainable, and largely due to significant stimulus from policymakers.

Investors around the world are focused on some key questions regarding the path of US inflation, the possibility of tariffs, the progress of the Chinese economy, and policies regarding bitcoin. Not to mention some unusual (but not unprecedented) moves in the US 10-year Treasury yield. Here, I address some of the most common questions I’ve gotten from clients since the start of the new year.

Will US inflation rise from here?

My base case remains that disinflation will continue as very restrictive monetary policy has helped normalize the US economy. I expect disinflationary progress to be imperfect, as it was in 2024, with periods of significant reduction in inflation and other periods with little or no reduction....

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

For further details see: