Quarterly Outlook: Cross-Country Divergences
2025-12-12 04:50:00 ET
Global Macro Outlook: Cross-Country Divergences
By Paul Mielczarski
Despite significant macroeconomic and trade policy shocks, 2025 proved a remarkably quiet year for developed market bond yields. The year-to-date high-low yield range of approximately 36 basis points was exceptionally narrow compared to the average annual range of around 80 basis points for the JP Morgan Global Bond Index over the previous decade. Heading into 2026, we expect developed market yields to remain broadly range-bound. On the one hand, there are several factors that point toward the possibility of acceleration of global growth: reduced tariff drag, supportive fiscal policies in major economies, and favorable financial conditions. However, ongoing weakness in employment growth creates meaningful downside risks and limits the scope for a sustained move higher in yields....
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Quarterly Outlook: Cross-Country Divergences
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