Recession Risks
Source: SeekingAlpha
2025-06-03 05:45:00 ET
Summary
- The commonly used definition of a technical recession is consecutive quarter-over-quarter contractions in real GDP.
- The global composite output index, a bellwether for the trend in global real GDP growth, lost ground in the first quarter of 2025 even before April’s reciprocal tariff-related turmoil.
- April’s sub-surveys of expected business conditions generally deteriorated, pointing to further weakness ahead, with geopolitical uncertainty and tariffs cited as prime concerns.
The commonly used definition of a “technical” recession is consecutive quarter-over-quarter contractions in real GDP. Some countries, including the US, have more specific definitions, generally including criteria based around the duration, depth, and breadth of the output losses....
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Recession Risks
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