Who Blinks First In The U.S.-China Trade War?
Source: SeekingAlpha
2025-05-05 10:05:00 ET
Summary
- Some point to President Trump’s recent softening on punitive tariffs as a sign that Washington recognizes the dangers of an all-out trade war. Others argue that China's heavy reliance on exports to the U.S. makes Beijing more likely to fold under the threat of a deflationary bust.
- Exports still account for 20% of China’s economy. A full transition to a consumption-led economy is still a long way off. But China has gotten smarter, reducing its dependence on a single customer.
- The U.S. imports $440 billion in goods from China - 15% of its total non-auto imports ($2.9 trillion). Even with tariffs, the U.S. may not be able to decouple. TINA (There Is No Alternative) might be in play.
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Who Blinks First In The U.S.-China Trade War?
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